With regard to the recent discussion about the tourism carrying capacity of Macao and the related research conducted by the Institute for Tourism Studies, the Institute would like to take this opportunity to provide explanations on the concept of carrying capacity, research methodology, how to interpret the results, and policy recommendations.
Tourism carrying capacity refers to the optimal number of visitors that a specific space (usually enclosed, such as a museum) can receive at a time without causing negative impact on the cultural and natural environment such as the architecture, heritage, the community, and visitors. However, there is a lack of literature on tourism carrying capacity of open and large spaces such as cities. Therefore, the Institute combined studies on “social and psychological carrying capacity” and “physical capacity of tourism facilities” in the research, to attempt at estimating the optimal tourism carrying capacity of Macao. Optimal tourism carrying capacity is a dynamic concept, which changes with the change in visitation volume, tourist behaviour, and the supply and demand of tourism infrastructure and products.
The research team collected opinions from Macao residents and visitors to Macao on specific days of the year, including weekdays, weekends and Golden Weeks. The opinions covered the experience and level of satisfaction with several social or quality of life indicators such as perceived crowdedness, satisfaction with quality of environment, services of F&B, shops and retail, taxi, public buses, as well as satisfaction with traffic conditions, border clearance waiting time, ferry boarding, tourist attractions and entertainment and recreation activities. In addition, visitors were asked about their satisfaction with hotels’ service quality and availability of rooms. There were 104 survey days in 2017, and no fewer than 6,000 respondents were approached. Since the tourism carrying capacity research is a study of impact and opinion analysis, it is necessary to analyze data collected in a specific time in the past. The team also collected data on the physical carrying capacity of ten tourism facilities and services, which included border entry points, restaurants and dining establishments, taxis, public bus transportation, ferries, major non-paid visitor attractions, paid visitor attractions, hotel accommodation, inbound tour operating capacity, and the Macao International Airport. Finally, the two sets of data were analyzed and compared.
Recently, the media reported that according to the research of the Institute, the optimal tourism carrying capacity of Macao was estimated to be less than 110,000 person-times per day or less than 40.1 million person-times per year. However, many people only paid attention to the figure of 40.1 million per year, ignoring the emphasis made by the Institute that the optimal level should be less than 110,000 person-times per day. Of the 104 survey days, the number of visitors on 21 days exceeded 110,000, while on the remaining 83 survey days, the number of passengers per day was less than 110,000. For example, on January 30, 2017, Macao received 166,048 visitors, which was higher than and reaching 151% of the optimal daily carrying capacity. However, on May 4, 2017, 64,694 visitors arrived in Macao, which was 58.8% of the optimal daily capacity.
The key issues with Macao's tourism capacity are twofold: (1) the surge in passenger numbers during peak travel periods and (2) the excessive concentration of passengers at certain attractions. The government has already begun to solve or improve some of the issues, such as transportation, customs clearance, flow management and so on. Improvement measures include strengthening the technology application at the ports, adjusting public bus shifts and adding efficient routes, forecasting the crowdedness and congestion level of major attractions through technology in order to facilitate travel arrangement for both visitors and industry operators.
The research report also made a number of recommendations on how to improve Macao's tourism reception capacity:
1. Divert visitors to second-tier attractions or areas by applying smart technology, or hold events in second-tier tourist areas.
2. Develop multi-destination routes with neighboring cities to attract business and cultural travelers, which can help optimize visitor composition.
3. Conduct in-depth research on the background and behavior of visitors by understanding their travel patterns, motivations, length of stay and information search process, so as to design and promote to them appropriate tourism products or routes (such as shopping groups, and consider building shopping centres and outlets in appropriate places). This would help to divert visitor flow in the long run.
4. Clearly define areas for long-term development of tourism, increase tourism landmarks, and properly separate them from the population to reduce impact on residents.
5. Increase the promotion of second- and third-tier tourist attractions or products.
6. Explore different measures or mechanisms to adjust the time of arrival of visitors.